From: csmchapm@dingo.cc.uq.edu.au (Murray Chapman) Newsgroups: alt.religion.scientology Subject: Re: Australian Census says 1500 Scientologists Date: 6 Oct 1997 07:21:40 GMT Organization: University of Queensland Lines: 93 Message-ID: <61a3i4$n8k$1@nargun.cc.uq.edu.au> References: <34368D35.4BFC@four.com.au> <3436CA11.1265@execpc.com> NNTP-Posting-Host: dingo.cc.uq.edu.au X-Newsreader: NN version 6.5.1 #1 (NOV) fun@thingy.apana.spaaaamtraaaaap.org.au (David Gerard) writes: >:> Its Offical!!! the recent census figures from 1996 record 1500 >Actually, the 1991 census gave 1091. Let's do some statistics: GOVERNMENT BODY CLAIMS ---------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------- Australia 1991 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------- Total Population: 17,269,000 (*) 18,260,863 (**) Admitted Scientologsts: 1,091 (+) 1,500 (++) Scientologist Density: 0.00006318% 0.00008214% ------------------------------------------------------------- Big win! 0.000019% growth rate in Australia! Now let's see if the Australian Orgs are pulling their weight: ------------------------------------------------------------- World 1991 1996 ------------------------------------------------------------- Total Population: 5,365,419,152 (+) 5,771,326,100 (+) Claimed Scientologists: 8,000,000 (~) 8,000,000 (~) Claimed Density: 0.001491% 0.001386% Australian Population: 17,269,000 18,260,863 Expected Aus. Scns: 25,748 25,310 ------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis: the number of Scientologists in Australia is about 20 times smaller than we would expect if the 8 million figure is correct and that Scientologists are evenly distributed around the world (anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise). (*) Source: CIA World Factbook, July 1996 estimate (**) Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (via Rev.Dr. David Gerard) (+) Source: US Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html) (++) Source: Anon posting quoting 1996 Australian Census (~) Source: Numerous Scientology publications. Despite claiming massive worldwide growth, the official number of scientologists has remained constant for six years. SCIENTOLOGY CLAIMS ------------------ Scientology offers demographics: http://www.scientology.org/p_jpg/heritage/heriteng/dmografx/27-table.htm Data is complete in five year intervals to 1990, with some 1992 figures. Observations: - "Number of practising scientologists" is not listed. - Growth in ALL categories is polynomial before 1990. - 1990 figures show growth rate INCREASING in: Number of Auding Hours Delivered Yearly in Churches and Missions (Not Cumulative); Scientology Publications Distribution; Number of Community Action & Social Reform Groups; Number of Churches, Missions and Organization; Dianetics Books Sold; - 1990 figures show growth rate DECLINING in: Number of People Participating in Scientology for the First Year (Per Year). Analysis: Scientology is not attracting new people as quickly as it used to. By scientology's own figures, he growth rate of publications/ /organizations/auding hours is greater than the growth rate of new members. From this we can conclude that existing members are receiving more publications in the mail and undergoing more auditing than before. The 1990 date coincides approximately with the commencement of the war against the Internet. Murray -- -- Murray Chapman Zheenl Punczna -- -- muzzle@cs.uq.oz.au zhmmyr@pf.hd.bm.nh -- -- University of Queensland Havirefvgl bs Dhrrafynaq -- -- Brisbane, Australia Oevfonar, Nhfgenyvn --